Robin Lovelace

The energy costs of commuting: a spatial microsimulation approach
Supervisors: Dr Dimitris Ballas and Dr Matt Watson (Geography) and Dr Steven Beck (Mechanical Engineering)
Background
Energy is the 'master resource', providing our food, manufactured goods, heat and electricity. Transport is also a large energy user, consuming around 1/3 of the UK's commercial energy supply. The research investigates how much energy is consumed by personal transport, specifically, the daily commute to work and back. My calculations show the energy costs of commuting have increased tenfold in the last 100 years, and have now plateaued (Figure 1).

But why is this important? In the UK, we are over 90% dependent on oil for transport, burning more than half of our oil imports in cars (Decc 2011: 73). New technology has yet to provide the solution to this problem, as biofuels are criticised for increasing fuel prices electric cars sit unwanted in showrooms, and large scale penetration of hydrogen fuel cells remains pure fantasy. This is cause for concern in light of peak oil (Figure 2).

Commuting is essential for daily life, and is a major barrier to employment for millions of others. It is also responsible for around 8% of the UK's oil imports and 2.5% of greenhouse gas emissions. If the price of oil rises, which areas will be worse affected? Will some people be priced out of work? These are some of the questions my research seeks to answer.
Methods
A spatial microsimulation model has been developed to simulate the characteristics of individuals living in different areas, building on Ballas et al. (2005). This means sampling from an individual level survey based on geographic aggregates for each area, provided by the Census. This method provides information on energy use, socio-economic details, and even income estimates. From this foundation, indexes of 'oil vulnerability' can be developed, and scenarios to deal with the problem (eg car sharing) can be evaluated.
Interesting findings
The dominance of the car can be measured in different ways. In terms of number of trips, the situation looks acceptable, less than 50% of commuters driving to work in some areas. However, in terms of distance travelled and energy use, car dominance is much greater (Figure 3).

Skills
I have a wide range of skills, picked up through academic courses, work experience, and personal interest. These include:
- Data analysis: I am proficient in the use of R and other software to explore, visualise and interpret large and complex datasets, including continuous and categorical variables.
- GIS: I have a long experience using ESRI's ArcGIS, QGIS and recently R's spatial packages to create maps and analyse spatial data. I have an active interest in web mapping and attended a conference in Girona on OpenLayers. I can set-up and manage map servers.
- Life skills: this includes writing reports, presenting my work to new audiences, teaching, languages and being part of a wider team.
General research interests
- Open Source tools for data analysis and presentation (R, QGIS, ggplot2)
- Applications of GIS to energy problems
- Modelling in R
Publications
Journals
- Lovelace, R., Beck, S.B.M., Watson, M. and Wild, A. (2011). Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK. Energy Policy , 39(4), 2075-2087.
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.01.051
Reprint available online via the EFutures website - Lovelace, R. (2008). Energy: efficiency gains alone won't reduce emissions. Nature , 455(7212), 460.
doi:10.1038/455461a
Preprint available
Printed magazine articles
- Bike trailers. Now Then, September 2011.
- The Ecotechnic Future. Now Then, March 2011.
html or pdf - Fear. Now Then, November 2010, 22-23.
html or pdf - Energy futures. Now Then, June 2010, 16-17.
html or pdf
Online magazines and blogs
- Lovelace, R. (2011). Assessing the energy implication of political intervention. The Oil Drum.
- Lovelace, R. (2010). Cycle-touring: a vision of post-peak holidays? The Oil Drum: Campfire.
- Lovelace, R. (2010). How to Set Up and Run a Bicycle Repair Company. The Oil Drum: Campfire.
Further information
My research is funded by the EPSRC.
Contact me: robin.lovelace at shef.ac.uk, or rob00x at g mail .com. Skype: robin.lovelace
