Reading list

For an introduction to Bayesian Statistics in general, a recommended book is

  • Berry, D.A. (1996). Statistics: A Bayesian Perspective. Duxbury, London.

Tony O´Hagan and Bryan Luce have prepared a short introductory text on Bayesian Statistics and its application to health economics

  • Luce, B. R. and O’Hagan, A. (2003). A Primer on Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics and Outcomes Research.

For Bayesian methods applied to clinical trials with cost as well as efficacy data

  • O'Hagan, A. and Stevens, J. W. (2003). Bayesian methods for design and analysis of cost-effectiveness trials in the evaluation of health care technologies. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 11, 469-490.

For Bayesian methods applied to the analysis of economic models

  • Parmigiani, G. (2002). Modelling in Medical Decision Making: A Bayesian Approach. Chichester: Wiley.

At CHEBS, we are developing a sensitivity analysis of economic models using the theory in the following paper, but new research will appear on this website soon.

  • Oakley, J. and O'Hagan, A. (2002). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 66, 751-769.

Another related topic is the value of information analysis to inform research priorities in economic evaluation of medical technologies. Recent CHEBS research on the value of information can be found in the following papers

  • Oakley, J. (2002). Value of information for complex cost-effectiveness models. Research Report No. 533/02 Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield.
  • Brennan, A., Chilcott, J., Kharroubi, S. A. and O'Hagan, A. (2002). A two-level Monte Carlo approach to calculating the expected value of perfect information:- Resolution of the uncertainty in methods. Under invited revision form for Medical Decision Making.

Important topic is estimating the utility values of health states defined by the SF-6D. This is in order to generate "quality-adjusted life years" (QALYs) and hence to conduct a cost-utility analysis of health care interventions. Recent CHEBS research is

  • Kharroubi, S. A., O'Hagan, A. and Brazier, J. E. (2004). Estimating Utilities from individual health state preference data: a nonparametric Bayesian method. Applied Statistics 54, 879-895.
  • Kharroubi, S. A., Brazier, J., O'Hagan, A. and Roberts, J. (2004). Modelling SF-6D health state preference data using a nonparametric Bayesian method. Research Report No. 559/05, Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield. Submitted to Journal of Health Economics.

This reading list will be updated as new references appear.