Dr John W Stevens
PhD, BSc (Hons)
School of Health and Related Research
Reader in Decision Science
+44 114 222 6396
Full contact details
School of Health and Related Research
1017
Regent Court (ScHARR)
30 Regent Street
Sheffield
S1 4DA
- Profile
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My primary role is Director of the Centre for Bayesian Statistics in Health Economics (CHEBS). I graduated from Brunel University in 1982 with a BSc in Statistics/Mathematics. After graduating, I worked in the pharmaceutical industry for 24 years, including at SK&F Research Ltd (1982 – 1986), Wellcome Research Laboratories (1986 – 1995), GlaxoWellcome (1995 – 1996) and AstraZeneca R&D Charnwood (1996 – 2006). During this time I gained experience in the design and analysis of pre-clinical studies and in all phases of clinical drug development, and held a variety of management positions.
In 1998, I assumed a technical role in the development and application of statistical methods to improve the drug development process, with a particular interest in Bayesian methods. During this time, I became interested in the application of Bayesian methods in health economics and was actively involved in the creation of CHEBS. My PhD was on latent variable modelling of effectiveness and resource use data in cost-effectiveness analyses of clinical trials. I moved to the University of Sheffield in November 2006 to provide leadership to CHEBS and further develop my Bayesian interests.
- Research interests
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- the application of Bayesian methods in drug development
- statistical methods in health economics
- evidence synthesis
- sample size determination under uncertainty
- adaptive dose finding
Current projects
I am currently working on the following projects:
- An evidence synthesis, meta-analysis and decision analytic modelling following a systematic review of quantitative and qualitative studies evaluating the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, safety and acceptability of interventions to prevent post-natal depression (PND). National Institute for Health Research: Health Technology Assessment Programme. 1 November 2012 – 31 January 2013. Co-investigator (£178,135)
- Bridging the age gap in breast cancer. Improving outcomes for older women. National Institute for Health Research. 1 June 2012 – 31 May 2017. Co-investigator (£590,105)
- Methods of extrapolating RCT evidence for economic evaluation. Medical Research Council: 1 October 2010 – 31 March 2012. Co-investigator (£313,888).
- Publications
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Show: Featured publications All publications
Featured publications
Journal articles
- Incorporating Genuine Prior Information about Between-Study Heterogeneity in Random Effects Pairwise and Network Meta-analyses. Medical Decision Making, 38(4), 531-542. View this article in WRRO
- Extrapolating Survival from Randomized Trials Using External Data: A Review of Methods. Medical Decision Making, 37(4), 377-390. View this article in WRRO
- Risk Prediction Models for Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review. Clinical Lung Cancer, 17(2), 95-106.
- Preventing the progression to Type 2 diabetes mellitus in adults at high risk: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of lifestyle, pharmacological and surgical interventions. Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, 107(3), 320-331.
- Systematic review of the efficacy of cilostazol, naftidrofuryl oxalate and pentoxifylline for the treatment of intermittent claudication.. Br J Surg, 99(12), 1630-1638.
- Routine antenatal anti-D prophylaxis in women who are Rh(D) negative: meta-analyses adjusted for differences in study design and quality.. PLoS One, 7(2), e30711. View this article in WRRO
- A note on dealing with missing standard errors in meta-analyses of continuous outcome measures in WinBUGS.. Pharm Stat, 10(4), 374-378.
- The Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug Development Model: a case study in Bayesian clinical trial simulation. PHARM STAT, 8(4), 371-389. View this article in WRRO
- Assurance in clinical trial design. PHARM STAT, 4(3), 187-201.
- Assessing and comparing costs: how robust are the bootstrap and methods based on asymptotic normality?. Health Econ, 12(1), 33-49.
- Bayesian methods for design and analysis of cost-effectiveness trials in the evaluation of health care technologies.. Stat Methods Med Res, 11(6), 469-490.
All publications
Journal articles
- Worldwide relative smoking prevalence among people living with and without HIV : a systematic review and meta-analysis. AIDS. View this article in WRRO
- Prevalence of respiratory conditions among people who use illicit opioids: a systematic review. Addiction, 115(5), 832-849. View this article in WRRO
- Reply to Thromboprophylaxis in temporary lower limb immobilization : extrapolate with care. Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis, 18(2), 519-520. View this article in WRRO
- Pharmacological thromboprophylaxis to prevent venous thromboembolism in patients with temporary lower limb immobilization after injury : systematic review and network meta‐analysis. Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis, 18(2), 422-438. View this article in WRRO
- How Uncertain is the Survival Extrapolation? A Study of the Impact of Different Parametric Survival Models on Extrapolated Uncertainty About Hazard Functions, Lifetime Mean Survival and Cost Effectiveness. PharmacoEconomics, 38(2), 193-204. View this article in WRRO
- Different strategies for pharmacological thromboprophylaxis for lower-limb immobilisation after injury: systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technology Assessment, 23(63), 1-190. View this article in WRRO
- A review of survival analysis methods used in NICE technology appraisals of cancer treatments: Consistency, limitations and areas for improvement. Medical Decision Making. View this article in WRRO
- Thromboprophylaxis in lower limb immobilisation after injury (TiLLI). Emergency Medicine Journal, 0, 1-6. View this article in WRRO
- Assessment-schedule matching in unanchored indirect treatment comparisons of progression-free survival in cancer studies. PharmacoEconomics. View this article in WRRO
- Tumour profiling tests to guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in early breast cancer: a systematic review and economic analysis. Health Technology Assessment, 23(30). View this article in WRRO
- Decision‐analysis modelling of the effects of thromboprophylaxis for people with lower limb immobilisation for injury. British Journal of Haematology, 186(1), 166-168. View this article in WRRO
- Dexamethasone implant for non-infectious uveitis: is it cost-effective?. British Journal of Ophthalmology. View this article in WRRO
- Adalimumab for non-infectious uveitis: is it cost-effective?. British Journal of Ophthalmology. View this article in WRRO
- Rheumatoid arthritis treated with 6-months of first-line biologic or biosimilar therapy: an updated systematic review and network meta-analysis.. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. View this article in WRRO
- Ibrutinib for Treating Waldenström’s Macroglobulinaemia: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 37(1), 7-18. View this article in WRRO
- Assessing prognosis and prediction of treatment response in early rheumatoid arthritis: systematic reviews.. Health Technology Assessment, 22(66), 1-294. View this article in WRRO
- Using evidence from randomised controlled trials in economic models: What information is relevant and is there a minimum amount of sample data required to make decisions?. PharmacoEconomics. View this article in WRRO
- Incorporating Genuine Prior Information about Between-Study Heterogeneity in Random Effects Pairwise and Network Meta-analyses. Medical Decision Making, 38(4), 531-542. View this article in WRRO
- Obinutuzumab with Bendamustine for Treating Follicular Lymphoma Refractory to Rituximab: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 36(10), 1143-1151. View this article in WRRO
- Estimating future health technology diffusion using expert beliefs to inform an established diffusion model. Value in Health. View this article in WRRO
- Ponatinib for Treating Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 36(7), 759-768. View this article in WRRO
- Ponatinib for Treating Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 36(8), 903-915. View this article in WRRO
- Pertuzumab for the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Early-Stage HER2-Positive Breast Cancer: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.. PharmacoEconomics, 36(1), 29-38. View this article in WRRO
- A review of methods for comparing treatments evaluated in studies that form disconnected networks of evidence. Research Synthesis Methods. View this article in WRRO
- A systematic review and economic evaluation of adalimumab and dexamethasone for treating non-infectious intermediate, posterior or panuveitis in adults. Health technology assessment, 21(68). View this article in WRRO
- Certolizumab Pegol for Treating Rheumatoid Arthritis Following Inadequate Response to a TNF-α Inhibitor: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 35(11), 1141-1151. View this article in WRRO
- Adalimumab for Treating Moderate-to-Severe Hidradenitis Suppurativa: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 35(8), 805-815. View this article in WRRO
- Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics. Medical Decision Making, 37(5), 523-533. View this article in WRRO
- The Cost-effectiveness of Sequences of Biological Disease-modifying Antirheumatic Drug Treatment in England for Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Can Tolerate Methotrexate. Journal of Rheumatology, 44(7), 973-980. View this article in WRRO
- Extrapolating Survival from Randomized Trials Using External Data: A Review of Methods. Medical Decision Making, 37(4), 377-390. View this article in WRRO
- Corrigendum: Adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, certolizumab pegol, golimumab, tocilizumab and abatacept for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis not previously treated with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and after the failure of conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs only: systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technology Assessment, 20(35), 611-614.
- A systematic review and economic evaluation of bisphosphonates for the prevention of fragility fractures. Health Technology Assessment, 20(78), 1-406. View this article in WRRO
- A Model-Based Economic Evaluation of Biologic and Non-Biologic Options for the Treatment of Adults with Moderately-to-Severely Active Ulcerative Colitis after the Failure of Conventional Therapy. PharmacoEconomics, 34(10), 1023-1038. View this article in WRRO
- When future change matters: modelling future price and diffusion in health technology assessments of medical devices. Value in Health, 19(6), 720-726. View this article in WRRO
- Vedolizumab for Treating Moderately to Severely Active Crohn’s Disease After Prior Therapy: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 34(12), 1241-1253. View this article in WRRO
- Clinical effectiveness of bisphosphonates for the prevention of fragility fractures: A systematic review and network meta-analysis. Bone, 89, 52-58. View this article in WRRO
- Ledipasvir-Sofosbuvir for Treating Chronic Hepatitis C: A NICE Single Technology Appraisal—An Evidence Review Group Perspective. PharmacoEconomics, 34(8), 741-750. View this article in WRRO
- Trastuzumab Emtansine for Treating HER2-Positive, Unresectable, Locally Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer After Treatment with Trastuzumab and a Taxane: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 34(7), 673-680. View this article in WRRO
- Sepsis: the LightCycler SeptiFast Test MGRADE®, SepsiTest™ and IRIDICA BAC BSI assay for rapidly identifying bloodstream bacteria and fungi - a systematic review and economic evaluation.. Health Technology Assessment, 20(46), 1-246. View this article in WRRO
- Infliximab, adalimumab and golimumab for treating moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis after the failure of conventional therapy (including a review of TA140 and TA262): clinical effectiveness systematic review and economic model. Health Technology Assessment, 20(39), 1-326. View this article in WRRO
- A systematic review, evidence synthesis and meta-analysis of quantitative and qualitative studies evaluating the clinical effectiveness, the cost-effectiveness, safety and acceptability of interventions to prevent postnatal depression. Health Technology Assessment, 20(37), 1-414. View this article in WRRO
- Adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, certolizumab pegol, golimumab, tocilizumab and abatacept for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis not previously treated with disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and after the failure of conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs only: systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technology Assessment, 20(35), 1-610. View this article in WRRO
- Risk Prediction Models for Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review. Clinical Lung Cancer, 17(2), 95-106.
- Nalmefene for Reducing Alcohol Consumption in People with Alcohol Dependence: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 33(8), 833-847. View this article in WRRO
- Preventing the progression to Type 2 diabetes mellitus in adults at high risk: A systematic review and network meta-analysis of lifestyle, pharmacological and surgical interventions. Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice, 107(3), 320-331.
- Prehospital Noninvasive Ventilation for Acute Respiratory Failure: Systematic Review, Network Meta-analysis, and Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis. Academic Emergency Medicine, 21(9), 960-970. View this article in WRRO
- Systematic review, network meta-analysis and exploratory cost-effectiveness model of randomized trials of minimally invasive techniques versus surgery for varicose veins.. Br J Surg, 101(9), 1040-1052. View this article in WRRO
- Cost-effectiveness of cilostazol, naftidrofuryl oxalate, and pentoxifylline for the treatment of intermittent claudication in people with peripheral arterial disease.. Angiology, 65(3), 190-197.
- The 3Mg trial: a randomised controlled trial of intravenous or nebulised magnesium sulphate versus placebo in adults with acute severe asthma.. Health Technol Assess, 18(22), 1-168.
- What is the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of cytisine compared with varenicline for smoking cessation? A systematic review and economic evaluation.. Health Technol Assess, 18(33), 1-120.
- Routine echocardiography in the management of stroke and transient ischaemic attack: a systematic review and economic evaluation.. Health Technol Assess, 18(16), 1-176.
- Authors' reply: systematic review of the efficacy of cilostazol, naftidrofuryl oxalate and pentoxifylline for the treatment of intermittent claudication (Br J Surg 2012; 99: 1630-1638).. Br J Surg, 100(13), 1838-1839.
- Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of minimally invasive techniques to manage varicose veins: a systematic review and economic evaluation.. Health Technol Assess, 17(48), i-141.
- Home telemonitoring or structured telephone support programmes after recent discharge in patients with heart failure: systematic review and economic evaluation.. Health Technol Assess, 17(32), 1-vi. View this article in WRRO
- Remote monitoring after recent hospital discharge in patients with heart failure: A systematic review and network meta-analysis. Heart, 99(23), 1717-1726.
- Golimumab for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis after the failure of previous disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs: a NICE single technology appraisal.. Pharmacoeconomics, 31(8), 653-661.
- Telemonitoring after discharge from hospital with heart failure: cost-effectiveness modelling of alternative service designs.. BMJ Open, 3(9), e003250. View this article in WRRO
- Systematic review, meta-analysis and economic modelling of diagnostic strategies for suspected acute coronary syndrome.. Health Technol Assess, 17(1), v-188.
- Heart-type fatty acid binding protein as an early marker for myocardial infarction: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Emergency Medicine Journal, 30(4), 280-286.
- Systematic review of the efficacy of cilostazol, naftidrofuryl oxalate and pentoxifylline for the treatment of intermittent claudication.. Br J Surg, 99(12), 1630-1638.
- Rituximab for the first-line treatment of stage III-IV follicular lymphoma (review of Technology Appraisal No. 110): a systematic review and economic evaluation.. Health Technol Assess, 16(37), 1-iv.
- Cost-effectiveness of presentation versus delayed troponin testing for acute myocardial infarction. Heart, 98(20), 1498-1503.
- Routine antenatal anti-D prophylaxis in women who are Rh(D) negative: meta-analyses adjusted for differences in study design and quality.. PLoS One, 7(2), e30711. View this article in WRRO
- Prescribing high-dose lipid-lowering therapy early to avoid subsequent cardiovascular events: is this a cost-effective strategy?. Eur J Prev Cardiol, 19(3), 474-483.
- Pharmaceutical Statistics 10th anniversary. Pharmaceutical Statistics, 10(6), 475-476.
- A systematic review and economic evaluation of cilostazol, naftidrofuryl oxalate, pentoxifylline and inositol nicotinate for the treatment of intermittent claudication in people with peripheral arterial disease.. Health Technol Assess, 15(40), 1-210.
- Trabectedin for the treatment of relapsed ovarian cancer.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 15 Suppl 1, 69-75.
- A note on dealing with missing standard errors in meta-analyses of continuous outcome measures in WinBUGS.. Pharm Stat, 10(4), 374-378.
- Uncertainty analysis is inherently Bayesian.. Value Health, 14(1), 202-203.
- NICE work: how NICE decides what we should pay for. BRIT J GEN PRACT, 60(570), 7-8.
- The Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug Development Model: a case study in Bayesian clinical trial simulation. PHARM STAT, 8(4), 371-389. View this article in WRRO
- Using short-term evidence to predict six-month outcomes in clinical trials of signs and symptoms in rheumatoid arthritis. PHARM STAT, 8(2), 150-162.
- Bayesian decision procedures for binary and continuous bivariate dose-escalation studies. Pharmaceutical Statistics, 5(2), 125-133.
- Bayesian decision procedures for dose-escalation based on evidence of undesirable events and therapeutic benefit. Statistics in medicine, 25(1), 37-53.
- Assurance in clinical trial design. PHARM STAT, 4(3), 187-201.
- On estimators of medical costs with censored data.. J Health Econ, 23(3), 615-625.
- An Evaluation of a Bayesian Method of Dose Escalation Based on Bivariate Binary Responses. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 14(4), 969-983.
- Case study in the Bayesian analysis of a cost-effectiveness trial in the evaluation of health care technologies: Depression. PHARM STAT, 2(1), 51-68.
- Assessing and comparing costs: how robust are the bootstrap and methods based on asymptotic normality?. Health Econ, 12(1), 33-49.
- Incorporation of genuine prior information in cost-effectiveness analysis of clinical trial data.. Int J Technol Assess Health Care, 18(4), 782-790. View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian methods for design and analysis of cost-effectiveness trials in the evaluation of health care technologies.. Stat Methods Med Res, 11(6), 469-490.
- Dynamic modelling of a challenge-escalation cross-over study of treatment of capsaicin-induced coughing. Statistics in medicine, 21(20), 3023-3033.
- Remacemide versus carbamazepine in newly diagnosed epilepsy. Epilepsy & Behavior, 3(4), 405-405.
- Efficacy and Safety of Remacemide versus Carbamazepine in Newly Diagnosed Epilepsy: Comparison by Sequential Analysis. Epilepsy & Behavior, 3(2), 140-146.
- The probability of cost-effectiveness.. BMC Med Res Methodol, 2, 5.
- A framework for cost-effectiveness analysis from clinical trial data.. Health Econ, 10(4), 303-315.
- Bayesian assessment of sample size for clinical trials of cost-effectiveness.. Med Decis Making, 21(3), 219-230.
- Bayesian cost-effectiveness analysis from clinical trial data.. Stat Med, 20(5), 733-753.
- Inference for the cost-effectiveness acceptability curve and cost-effectiveness ratio.. Pharmacoeconomics, 17(4), 339-349.
- Corrigendum: A systematic review and economic evaluation of bisphosphonates for the prevention of fragility fractures. Health Technology Assessment, 20(78), 407-424. View this article in WRRO
- Trabectedin for the treatment of relapsed ovarian cancer. Health Technology Assessment, 15(Suppl 1), 69-75.
- Pre-hospital non-invasive ventilation for acute respiratory failure: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness evaluation. Health Technology Assessment, 19(42), 1-102. View this article in WRRO
- Systematic review and economic modelling of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of art therapy among people with non-psychotic mental health disorders. Health Technology Assessment, 19(18), 1-120. View this article in WRRO
Conference proceedings papers
- Assessment-Time Bias: Statistical Approaches to Adjusting for Between-Trial Differences in the Schedule of Assessment for Disease Progression In Immuno-Oncology Trials. Value in Health, Vol. 21 (pp S10-S10)
- Prevention of postnatal depression: a meta-analysis of interventions to prevent postnatal depression. Journal of Reproductive and Infant Psychology, Vol. 33(3) (pp E3-E4), 13 September 2016 - 14 September 2016. View this article in WRRO
- Remote monitoring strategies for patients with stable Heart failure: a systematic review and Network meta-analysis. Value in Health, Vol. 18(3) (pp A248-A248)
- The Cost-Effectiveness of Biologic Dmards in Patients With Severe or Mild-To-Severe Rheumatoid Arthritis After Conventional Dmards. Value in Health, Vol. 17(7) (pp A380-A380)
- THE ESTIMATED SURVIVAL OF PATIENTS WITH DOUBLE REFRACTORY CHRONIC LYMPHOCYTIC LEUKAEMIA; A REANALYSIS OF NICE TA202 USING BAYESIAN METHODOLOGY TO MODEL OBSERVED DATA. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 16(7) (pp A397-A397)
- COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF CILOSTAZOL, NAFTIDROFURYL OXALATE, PENTOXIFYLLINE AND INOSITOL NICOTINATE FOR THE TREATMENT OF INTERMITTENT CLAUDICATION IN PEOPLE WITH PERIPHERAL ARTERIAL DISEASE IN THE UK. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 15(7) (pp A633-A633)
- DIAGNOSTIC ACCURACY OF EARLY BIOMARKERS FOR ACUTE CORONARY SYNDROME (ACS). VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 15(7) (pp A361-A361)
- TELEMONITORING AFTER DISCHARGE WITH HEART FAILURE - COST-EFFECTIVENESS MODELLING OF ALTERNATIVE SERVICE DESIGNS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 15(7) (pp A360-A360)
- PMD40 Cost-Effectiveness of Presentation and Delayed Troponin Testing for Acute Myocardial Infarction. Value in Health, Vol. 15(4) (pp A69-A69)
- THE POWER OF ASSUMPTIONS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 14(7) (pp A235-A235)
- USE OF A BAYESIAN MIXED TREATMENT META ANALYSIS TO SUPPORT REIMBURSEMENT DECISION MAKING OF PHOSPHATE BINDER THERAPY IN END-STAGE RENAL DISEASE. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 12(7) (pp A308-A308)
- Cost-effectiveness modelling of telemonitoring after discharge from hospital with heart failure. International Journal of Integrated Care, Vol. 13(7)
Posters
- Incorporating Genuine Prior Information about Between-Study Heterogeneity in Random Effects Pairwise and Network Meta-analyses. Medical Decision Making, 38(4), 531-542. View this article in WRRO
- Teaching interests
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- HAR670: Medical Statistics and Evidence Synthesis
- HAR6035: An Introduction to Medical Statistics and Critical Appraisal
- PAS6062: Further Clinical Trials
- Professional activities
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In addition to my role as Director of CHEBS, I am:
- a member of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) Appraisal Committee
- on the panel of expert reviewers for the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Programme
- Editor-in-Chief of the Pharmaceutical Statistics journal