Quantitative Analysis of Crime Conference

10am - 4pm

25th June

ICOSS, The University of Sheffield.

The Sheffield Methods Institute together with the Centre for Criminological Research and the Department of Town and Regional Planning are jointly hosting a one-day conference, presenting cutting edge research in quantitative crime analysis lead by international renowned scholar Professor George Galster, Clarence Hilberry Professor of Urban Affairs, Wayne State University, USA.

He will be joined by leading names in criminological research; Professor Stephen Farrall from The University of Sheffield's Centre for Criminological Research and Dr Ellie Bates, research fellow for the Applied Quantitative Methods Network (AQMeN) at The University of Edinburgh.

The one day conference will be examining the latest quantitative research from the three scholars in the form of three presentations with discussion sessions and the opportunity for networking over lunch.

The conference is free to attend and registration is now open.

G Galster

Professor George Galster will be presenting "Neighborhood Context and Criminal Behaviors of the Disadvantaged: Evidence from a Copenhagen Natural Experiment".

We investigate the degree to which criminal offenses committed by youth and young adults are influenced by their neighborhood surroundings, especially the demographic, socioeconomic and criminal dimensions of their social housing development. We identify causal relationships by using a natural experiment wherein the Copenhagen, DK municipality assigns households with urgent housing needs to every third social housing unit that becomes vacant, a process we show produces quasi-random assignment. We obtain from administrative sources information on the 1,078 individuals aged 15-29 who were thus assigned during 2007-2010 and on their social housing developments in the week before assignment; their violent, property and drug charges and convictions during the subsequent three years are modelled. We find that the proportion of neighborhood residents aged 15-29 receiving social assistance increases drug crimes and the proportion aged 30-59 with only basic education increases property crimes. Unspecified fixed effects measured at the school district level also predict all sorts of criminality. Unexpectedly, the proportion of residents with prior criminal charges or convictions was not predictive.

S Farrall

Professor Stephen Farrall will be presenting "Housing Tenure and Crime During the 1980-1998 Period".

However one views it, the changes to housing tenure in the 1980s were pronounced and have had enduring effects in terms of the housing market. In this paper we throw light on the relationship between housing tenure and the experience of property crime in and around what might be referred to as domestic environments (i.e. people’s homes). In so doing, we explore the ideological positions which both of the (then) main political parties had adopted towards housing during the 1970s (during the build up to the sale of council housing), and the ways in which the legal framework surrounding housing was modified in order to effect these ideas at, quite literally, ‘street level’. Using the census, the General Household Survey, the British Crime Survey and the British Social Attitudes Survey, we examine the general relationship between housing tenure and crime, and explore how these unfolded both in terms of time (that is, an historical analysis) and social space (that is in terms of the socio-spatial location of these crimes).

E BatesDr Ellie Bates will be presenting "Group Trajectory Analysis of Neighbourhood Crime"

What drives varying trajectories of crime at the neighbourhood level? Research in the United States, at the street segment level, shows clear evidence of places experiencing varying trajectories of crime across a decade. However, there has been little research done in Europe looking at trajectories of crime for different places. In addition, little research has been done internationally exploring crime trajectories across neighbourhoods larger than street segments.

This paper will present results from two pieces of research looking at trajectories of crime. The first piece of research has examined trajectories of vandalism at 100m by 100m grid (a similar size but different shape to street segments) and larger output area level within a city. The other piece of research presents preliminary findings from research examining the overall crime trajectories of data zones (areas larger than street segments which are natural neighbourhoods of between 500 to 1000 people) in another area of Scotland. The research on vandalism examines six years of data, whereas the broader crime group research has modelled counts of crime adjusted for population change across 15 years.

Both pieces of research find distinct groups of neighbourhoods which have both differing levels of crime, and differing crime change. The research on vandalism also suggests that the scale chosen for analysis may have an impact on findings.