Professor Jeremy Oakley
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
Head of School
Professor of Statistics
j.oakley@sheffield.ac.uk
+44 114 222 3853
+44 114 222 3853
I16, Hicks Building
Full contact details
Professor Jeremy Oakley
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
I16
Hicks Building
Hounsfield Road
Sheffield
S3 7RH
School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences
I16
Hicks Building
Hounsfield Road
Sheffield
S3 7RH
- Profile
-
Professor Oakley obtained his BSc (1996) in Mathematics and Statistics from the University of Nottingham, and his PhD (2000) in Statistics from the University of Sheffield. He has worked as a post- doctoral research associate in both the Department of Computer Science and Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield, before starting a lectureship in Probability and Statistics in 2002. He has various research interests in Bayesian statistics including uncertainty quantification for computer models, prior elicitation and Bayesian methods in health economics.
- Publications
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Show: Featured publications All publications
Featured publications
Journal articles
- Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds. Scientific Reports, 12. View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian calibration of electrophysiology models using restitution curve emulators. Frontiers in Physiology, 12. View this article in WRRO
- Gaussian process manifold interpolation for probabilistic atrial activation maps and uncertain conduction velocity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 378(2173). View this article in WRRO
- Probabilistic interpolation of uncertain local activation times on human atrial manifolds. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 67(1), 99-109. View this article in WRRO
- Incorporating genuine prior information about between-study heterogeneity in random effects pairwise and network meta-analyses. Medical Decision Making, 38(4), 531-542. View this article in WRRO
- Approximate Bayesian Computation and simulation-based inference for complex stochastic epidemic models. Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 33(1), 4-18. View this article in WRRO
- Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual Based HIV Transmission Model. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5(1), 694-719. View this article in WRRO
- Calibration of stochastic computer simulators using likelihood emulation. Technometrics, 59(1), 80-92. View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian History Matching of Complex Infectious Disease Models Using Emulation: A Tutorial and a Case Study on HIV in Uganda. PLOS Computational Biology, 11(1). View this article in WRRO
- Estimating Multiparameter Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information from a Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample: A Nonparametric Regression Approach. Medical Decision Making, 34(3), 311-326.
- When is a model good enough? Deriving the expected value of model improvement via specifying internal model discrepancies. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 2(1), 106-125. View this article in WRRO
- Assurance calculations for planning clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes. Statistics in Medicine, 33(1), 31-45.
- A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts. Environmental Modelling and Software, 52, 1-4.
- Multivariate Gaussian Process Emulators With Nonseparable Covariance Structures. Technometrics, 55(1), 47-56.
- Managing structural uncertainty in health economic decision models: A discrepancy approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics.
- Assurance for clinical trial design with normally distributed outcomes : eliciting uncertainty about variances. Pharmaceutical Statistics.
All publications
Books
Journal articles
- Assurance methods for designing a clinical trial with a delayed treatment effect. Statistics in Medicine, 43(19), 3595-3612. View this article in WRRO
- An extended isogeometric collocation method for fracture analysis. International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, 125(16). View this article in WRRO
- Correction to: Response (minimum clinically relevant change) in ASD symptoms after an intervention according to CARS-2: consensus from an expert elicitation procedure. European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry, 32(2), 367-367.
- Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds. Scientific Reports, 12. View this article in WRRO
- Corrigendum: Bayesian Calibration of Electrophysiology Models Using Restitution Curve Emulators. Frontiers in Physiology, 12, 765622-765622.
- Bayesian calibration of electrophysiology models using restitution curve emulators. Frontiers in Physiology, 12. View this article in WRRO
- Response (minimum clinically relevant change) in ASD symptoms after an intervention according to CARS-2 : consensus from an expert elicitation procedure. European Child and Adolescent Psychiatry.
- Gaussian process manifold interpolation for probabilistic atrial activation maps and uncertain conduction velocity. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 378(2173). View this article in WRRO
- Quantifying atrial anatomy uncertainty from clinical data and its impact on electro-physiology simulation predictions. Medical Image Analysis, 61. View this article in WRRO
- Interventions to reduce the risk of surgically transmitted Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease: a cost-effective modelling review. Health Technology Assessment, 24(11), 1-150. View this article in WRRO
- Probabilistic interpolation of uncertain local activation times on human atrial manifolds. IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, 67(1), 99-109. View this article in WRRO
- Choice of time horizon critical in estimating costs and effects of changes to HIV programmes. PLoS ONE, 13(5). View this article in WRRO
- Incorporating genuine prior information about between-study heterogeneity in random effects pairwise and network meta-analyses. Medical Decision Making, 38(4), 531-542. View this article in WRRO
- Approximate Bayesian Computation and simulation-based inference for complex stochastic epidemic models. Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 33(1), 4-18. View this article in WRRO
- Improving ART programme retention and viral suppression are key to maximising impact of treatment as prevention - a modelling study. BMC Infectious Diseases, 17(1). View this article in WRRO
- Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual Based HIV Transmission Model. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 5(1), 694-719. View this article in WRRO
- History matching of a complex epidemiological model of human immunodeficiency virus transmission by using variance emulation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66(4), 717-740. View this article in WRRO
- Universal test, treat, and keep: improving ART retention is key in cost-effective HIV control in Uganda.. BMC Infectious Diseases, 17(1), 322. View this article in WRRO
- Calibration of stochastic computer simulators using likelihood emulation. Technometrics, 59(1), 80-92. View this article in WRRO
- Estimating the expected value of sample information using the probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample: A fast, nonparametric regression-based method.. Medical Decision Making, 35(5), 570-583. View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian History Matching of Complex Infectious Disease Models Using Emulation: A Tutorial and a Case Study on HIV in Uganda. PLOS Computational Biology, 11(1). View this article in WRRO
- Estimating Multiparameter Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information from a Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample: A Nonparametric Regression Approach. Medical Decision Making, 34(3), 311-326.
- When is a model good enough? Deriving the expected value of model improvement via specifying internal model discrepancies. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, 2(1), 106-125. View this article in WRRO
- Assurance calculations for planning clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes. Statistics in Medicine, 33(1), 31-45.
- A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts. Environmental Modelling and Software, 52, 1-4.
- Fast efficient computation of expected value of sample information from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample: a non-parametric regression approach. Trials, 14(S1).
- Multivariate Gaussian Process Emulators With Nonseparable Covariance Structures. Technometrics, 55(1), 47-56.
- An efficient method for computing single-parameter partial expected value of perfect information.. Med Decis Making, 33(6), 755-766.
- Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a nonlinear finite element model. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing.
- Quantifying Simulator Discrepancy in Discrete-Time Dynamical Simulators. Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics, 16(4), 554-570.
- Managing structural uncertainty in health economic decision models: A discrepancy approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics.
- Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a model of the aortic valve. Journal of Biomechanics, 44(8), 1499-1506.
- Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a model of the aortic valve.. J Biomech, 44(8), 1499-1506.
- Bayesian inference for comorbid disease risks using marginal disease risks and correlation information from a separate source.. Med Decis Making, 31(4), 571-581.
- Quantifying Simulator Discrepancy in Discrete-Time Dynamical Simulators. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 1-17.
- Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of an FRF of a structure using a Gaussian process emulator. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 25(8), 2962-2975.
- Simulation sample sizes for Monte Carlo partial EVPI calculations.. J Health Econ, 29(3), 468-477.
- The cost-effectiveness of surgical instrument management policies to reduce the risk of vCJD transmission to humans. J OPER RES SOC, 60(4), 506-518.
- Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes. BIOMETRIKA, 96(3), 663-676.
- The cost-effectiveness of an RCT to establish whether 5 or 10 years of bisphosphonate treatment is the better duration for women with a prior fracture.. Med Decis Making, 29(6), 678-689.
- Decision-Theoretic Sensitivity Analysis for Complex Computer Models. TECHNOMETRICS, 51(2), 121-129.
- The Rheumatoid Arthritis Drug Development Model: a case study in Bayesian clinical trial simulation. PHARM STAT, 8(4), 371-389.
- Modelling the expected net benefits of interventions to reduce the burden of medication errors.. J Health Serv Res Policy, 13(2), 85-91.
- Estimating the expected value of partial perfect information: A review of methods. European Journal of Health Economics, 9(3), 251-259.
- Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributions. BAYESIAN ANAL, 2(4), 693-718.
- A prospective hazard and improvement analytic approach to predicting the effectiveness of medication error interventions. SAFETY SCI, 45(4), 523-539.
- Uncertainty in prior elicitations: a nonparametric approach. BIOMETRIKA, 94(2), 427-441.
- Description of an individual patient methodology for calculating the cost-effectiveness of treatments for osteoporosis in women. J OPER RES SOC, 56(2), 214-221.
- A systematic review and economic evaluation of alendronate, etidronate, risedronate, raloxifene and teriparatide for the prevention and treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis. Health Technology Assessment, 9(22).
- Probabilistic sensitivity analysis of complex models: a Bayesian approach. J ROY STAT SOC B, 66, 751-769.
- Methods for expected value of information analysis in complex health economic models: developments on the health economics of interferon-beta and glatiramer acetate for multiple sclerosis.. Health technology assessment (Winchester, England), 8(27).
- Estimating percentiles of uncertain computer code outputs. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C Applied Statistics, 53(1), 83-93.
- Gaussian process modeling in conjunction with individual patient simulation modeling: A case study describing the calculation of cost-effectiveness ratios for the treatment of established osteoporosis. MED DECIS MAKING, 24(1), 89-100.
- Bayesian inference for the uncertainty distribution of computer model outputs. Biometrika, 89(4), 769-784.
- Eliciting Gaussian process priors for complex computer codes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D the Statistician, 51(1), 81-97.
- Assurance for clinical trial design with normally distributed outcomes : eliciting uncertainty about variances. Pharmaceutical Statistics.
Book chapters
- Recent Advances in the Elicitation of Uncertainty Distributions from Experts for Multinomial Probabilities, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science (pp. 19-51). Springer International Publishing
- Modelling with Deterministic Computer Models (pp. 51-67). Wiley
- Areas for Research (pp. 223-226). Wiley
- Published Examples of the Formal Elicitation of Expert Opinion (pp. 193-216). Wiley
- The Elicitation Context (pp. 25-31). Wiley
- Eliciting and Fitting a Parametric Distribution (pp. 121-151). Wiley
- Fundamentals of Probability and Judgement (pp. 1-24). Wiley
- Multiple Experts (pp. 179-192). Wiley
- Eliciting Distributions – Uncertainty and Imprecision (pp. 153-160). Wiley
- Evaluating Elicitation (pp. 161-177). Wiley
- Eliciting Distributions – General (pp. 97-119). Wiley
- The Elicitation of Probabilities (pp. 61-96). Wiley
- Glossary (pp. 227-265). Wiley
- The Psychology of Judgement Under Uncertainty (pp. 33-59). Wiley
Conference proceedings
- Simulation-based engineering design: solving parameter inference and multi-objective optimization problems on a shared simulation budget. Proceedings of 2021 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC) (pp 1399-1405). Melbourne, Australia, 17 October 2021 - 20 October 2021.
- A FRAMEWORK FOR EXPERT ELICITATION RELATED TO COUNTERFACTUAL VALUES: A CASE STUDY OF ELICITATION TO INFORM SUBGROUP ANALYSES IN CLINICAL TRIALS. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 25(1) (pp S274-S274)
- AN EXPLORATION OF THE TRADE-OFF BETWEEN FALSE NEGATIVES AND FALSE POSITIVES WHEN IDENTIFYING SUBGROUP EFFECTS. MEDICAL DECISION MAKING, Vol. 40(1) (pp E266-E267)
- A FRAMEWORK FOR EXPERT ELICITATION TO INFORM SUBGROUP ANALYSES IN CLINICAL TRIALS. MEDICAL DECISION MAKING, Vol. 40(5) (pp E410-E411)
- Toward a unified framework for model calibration and optimisation in virtual engineering workflows. 2019 IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SYSTEMS, MAN AND CYBERNETICS (SMC) (pp 3148-3153)
- Component-level study of a decomposition-based multi-objective optimizer on a limited evaluation budget. Proceedings of the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO 2018) (pp 689-696). Kyoto, Japan, 15 July 2018 - 15 July 2018. View this article in WRRO
- EVidence Synthesis For Health Technology Assessment With Limited Studies. Value in Health, Vol. 20(9) (pp A770-A770)
- Applying emulators for improved flood risk analysis. E3S Web of Conferences, Vol. 7 (pp 04002-04002)
- How to Calculate Value of Information in Seconds Using 'Savi', the Sheffield Accelerated Value of Information Web App. Value Health, Vol. 18(7) (pp A725-A726). Milan, Italy, 7 November 2015 - 7 November 2015. View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian sensitivity analysis of a large nonlinear model. Proceedings of ISMA 2008, Vol. 1-8 (pp 3723-3736). Belgium, 15 September 2008 - 15 September 2008. View this article in WRRO
- The cost-effectiveness of bisphosphonates, raloxifene and teriparatide in women with a prior fracture, low BMD and replete of calcium and vitamin D. OSTEOPOROSIS INTERNATIONAL, Vol. 15 (pp S39-S39)
- The cost-effectiveness of calcium and vitamin D in women with low dietary calcium intake. OSTEOPOROSIS INTERNATIONAL, Vol. 15 (pp S39-S40)
- Probability is perfect, but we can't elicit it perfectly. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, Vol. 85(1-3) (pp 239-248)
- The cost-effectiveness of bisphosphonates, raloxifene and hormone replacement therapy in women with established osteoporosis and replete of calcium and vitamin D. OSTEOPOROSIS INTERNATIONAL, Vol. 15 (pp S111-S111)
- The cost-effectiveness of calcium and vitamin D supplementation in women with low dietary intake of these nutrients and at risk of osteoporosis. OSTEOPOROSIS INTERNATIONAL, Vol. 15 (pp S87-S88)
- Bayesian Analysis of Computer Model Outputs (pp 119-130)
- Forecasting of Air Pollution at Unmonitored Sites (pp 497-500)
- A Workflow for Probabilistic Calibration of Models of Left Atrial Electrophysiology. Computing in Cardiology Conference (CinC)
- An algorithm to sample an anatomy with uncertainty. 2018 Computing in Cardiology Conference (CinC), Vol. 45. Maastricht, The Netherlands, 23 September 2018 - 23 September 2018. View this article in WRRO
Posters
- POSB421 A Framework for Expert Elicitation Related to Counterfactual Values: A Case Study of Elicitation to Inform Subgroup Analyses in Clinical Trials..
- Evidence synthesis with limited studies. HTAi 2018, Vancouver, Canada.
- Evidence synthesis for health technology assessment with limited studies.. . ISPOR Glasgow 2017.
Other
Preprints
- Remaining aerosol forcing uncertainty after observational constraint and the processes that cause it, Copernicus GmbH.
- Adaptive clinical trial design with delayed treatment effects using elicited prior distributions, arXiv.
- Assurance Methods for designing a clinical trial with a delayed treatment effect, arXiv.
- Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds, arXiv.
- Gaussian Process Manifold Interpolation for Probabilistic Atrial Activation Maps and Uncertain Conduction Velocity, arXiv.
- Incorporating genuine prior information about between-study heterogeneity in random effects pairwise and network meta-analyses, arXiv.
- Assurance for clinical trial design with normally distributed outcomes: eliciting uncertainty about variances, arXiv.
- Calibration of Complex Computer Simulators using Likelihood Emulation, arXiv.
- Calibrating cardiac electrophysiology models using latent Gaussian processes on atrial manifolds. Scientific Reports, 12. View this article in WRRO
- Research group
- Grants
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Current grants, as Coinvestigator
Uncertainty Quantification in Prospective and Predictive Patient Specific Cardiac Models EPSRC Past grants, as Principal Investigator
Gaussian Process Emulators for Numerical Models INO Simulation Tools for Automated and Robust Manufacturing EPSRC Match+ Past grants, as Coinvestigator
Development of a fully Bayesian framework for the identification and estimation of subgroup effects in Randomised Controlled Trials MRC Calibration and analysis of complex models: methodological development and application to explore the impact of HAART in Africa MRC Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models 2 (MUCM2) EPSRC Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models EPSRC Coupled models: Expert judgement, emulators and model uncertainty EPSRC Simplicity, complexity and modelling EPSRC BAMRA: Bayesian approaches in microbial risk assessment (Working group) NERC Mathematics for data modelling EPSRC The probability of rapid climate change NERC The probability of rapid climate change NERC
- Teaching activities
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MAS113 Introduction to Probability and Statistics