Project Description

Fellow: ER4 - Dr Vasilis Bellos Host institution: CH2M (formerly  Halcrow) Duration: 24 months Planned start date: May 2015
Actual start date: June 2016
Project title: Uncertainty interpretation and asset management (WP4, WP6)
Supervisor name: Dr Laura Baird, Dr Richard Crowder & Elliot Gill PhD enrolment: N

Objectives:

  • Evaluation of practical application of methodologies for quantification of uncertainty in a commercial environment, including: data requirements, infrastructure requirements, resource knowledge and training requirements, time and budget requirements.
  • Evaluate the ease of application of differing approaches to quantifying uncertainty and determine whether the measures of uncertainty add value to end users.
  • Evaluation of impact of improved uncertainty measures on decision making will include: derivation of the evidence base and guidance on where uncertainty measures provide greatest added value.
Tasks and methodology: ER4 will be seconded to USFD, for instruction in academic uncertainty analysis methods and collaborate with ER2 and ER3 (TUDelft) on evaluating the acceptability of measures of uncertainty amongst end users including: measures of conceptual understanding and communication of outcomes. A proportion of evaluations are expected to be on active commercially commissioned applications whilst remaining research focussed applications will provide base line data for communication to stakeholders. Efforts will be made to enhance usability and communication of outputs, especially to end users such as regulators and water authorities who are key players in any investment decision.
Results: Enhanced modelling tools and user guide(s) (D4.4, D6.1); Guidance on implementation of uncertainty measures (D6.7); evidence base (D4.5).
Dissemination: Reports and guidelines, journal paper, 2 outreach activities/year as MC ambassador. Annual conference attendance.
Planned secondments: USFD (1 month), academic uncertainty analysis methods. TUD (1 month) evaluate suitability of uncertainty analysis methods for commercial applications.