Deciphering the large-scale drivers of AEWE and the role of natural and human forcings

The weather system drivers of AEWE are themselves influenced by large-scale climate drivers such as the Southern Annular Mode, and links between the tropics and the Antarctic (so-called tropical-extratropical teleconnections).  Although the strong influence of atmospheric circulation on Antarctic climate change and variability is well established, detailed understanding of the linkages between these large-scale drivers and the weather system drivers of AEWE has yet to be achieved.

Here we will investigate how large-scale drivers affect AEWE directly and through the interplay between these large-scale drivers and the weather system drivers, using both standard statistical methods and machine learning.

We will also explore the risk of unprecedented extremes, and quantify the predictable signal of AEWE in large ensembles of seasonal forecasts.  We will also explore the thermodynamic contribution to AEWE, and through novel application of attribution methods we will conduct targeted attribution studies on the AEWE cases identified in workpackage 1.