Medium ice year forecast for 2021 iceberg season in the NW Atlantic

The combined forecast is for medium iceberg numbers in the 2021 ice season for the NW Atlantic.

A graph showing the 2021 season iceberg forecast, together with the 10-year and 50-year averages
Plot of the control systems model’s 2021 iceberg forecast, including the average number of icebergs past 48°N by the end of July in the last 10 and 50 years.

A research team including Prof Grant Bigg and Jennifer Ross have published their forecast for the 2021 ice season in the North West Atlantic.

The control systems model predicts a medium ice year, of 675±123 icebergs past 48°N by the end of July 2021. The monthly cumulative totals can be seen in the figure, along with the average iceberg numbers for the last 10 and 50 years. The plot shows a steady increase in iceberg numbers over the year, with the greatest increase at the expected months. It also fits very closely to the 10 year average.

All three machine learning models predict a medium year. The machine learning tools also predict a low/medium rate of change and a single peak in iceberg numbers. This last measure has been added this year, as an initial attempt to predict the number of peaks in an ice year (either one or multiple).

The combined 2021 iceberg forecast is therefore for a medium ice year, defined by the International Ice Patrol as between 231 and 1037 icebergs past 48°N in a given year.

Visit the NW Atlantic iceberg season forecast website

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