Professor Paul Blackwell
School of Mathematics and Statistics
+44 114 222 3719
Full contact details
School of Mathematics and Statistics
Prof Blackwell graduated with a BSc in Mathematics from Warwick University (1984). He has worked on forest growth models in the Statistics and Computing Department of the Forestry Commission Research Branch, and he obtained a PhD (1990) from Nottingham University. His main research interests are in Bayesian statistics, inference for stochastic processes, statistical ecology, and other applications including environmental statistics.
- Research interests
I mainly work in Bayesian statistics; I am interested in the development of new models and methodology, particularly inference for random processes, driven by real applications which are primarily in ecology but also in environmental science, archaeology and other areas. I am also interested in stochastic modelling, statistics and simulation more generally, again often with ecological and environmental applications.
This person does not have any publications available.
- Improving the visual communication of environmental model projections. Scientific Reports, 11(1).
- Bayesian Estimation of Heterogeneous Environments from Animal Movement Data. Environmetrics.
- Quantifying uncertainty and dynamical changes in multi‐species fishing mortality rates, catches and biomass by combining state‐space and size‐based multi‐species models. Fish and Fisheries.
- Modelling group movement with behaviour switching in continuous time. Biometrics.
- Gaussian process modeling of heterogeneity and discontinuities using Voronoi tessellations. Technometrics. View this article in WRRO
- The Langevin diffusion as a continuous‐time model of animal movement and habitat selection. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(11), 1894-1907. View this article in WRRO
- Inference in MCMC step selection models. Biometrics. View this article in WRRO
- Continuous time resource selection analysis for moving animals. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. View this article in WRRO
- Joint modelling of multi-scale animal movement data using hierarchical hidden Markov models. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. View this article in WRRO
- State‐switching continuous‐time correlated random walks. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 10(5), 637-649. View this article in WRRO
- Linking resource selection and step selection models for habitat preferences in animals. Ecology, 100(1). View this article in WRRO
- A general framework for combining ecosystem models. Fish and Fisheries. View this article in WRRO
- Scaling marine fish movement behavior from individuals to populations. Ecology and Evolution, 8(14), 7031-7043. View this article in WRRO
- Connectivity and systemic resilience of the Great Barrier Reef. PLoS Biology, 15(11). View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian Inference for Multistate ‘Step and Turn’ Animal Movement in Continuous Time. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, 22(3), 373-392. View this article in WRRO
- Statistical modelling of individual animal movement: an overview of key methods and a discussion of practical challenges. AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis. View this article in WRRO
- Corrigendum. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 8(7), 898-898.
- Coupling random inputs for parameter estimation in complex models. Statistics and Computing, 26(6), 1137-1146.
- Modeling interdependent animal movement in continuous time. Biometrics, 72(2), 345-324. View this article in WRRO
- Parameter uncertainty of a dynamic multispecies size spectrum model. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 73(4), 589-597. View this article in WRRO
- Exact Bayesian inference for animal movement in continuous time. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 7(2), 184-195. View this article in WRRO
- Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management. Marine Policy, 61, 291-302.
- Transatlantic distribution of the Alaskan White River Ash. Geology, 42(10), 875-878.
- Modelling group dynamic animal movement. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5(2), 190-199.
- Bayesian layer counting in ice-cores: Reconstructing the time scale. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, 63, 121-125.
- Flexible continuous-time modelling for heterogeneous animal movement. Ecological Modelling, 255, 29-37.
- SELECTION AND TREATMENT OF DATA FOR RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION: AN UPDATE TO THE INTERNATIONAL CALIBRATION (INTCAL) CRITERIA. RADIOCARBON, 55(4), 1923-1945.
- The Bayesian approach to radiocarbon calibration curve estimation: The IntCal13, Marine13, and SHCal13 methodologies. Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1905-1922.
- IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1869-1887.
- Shcal13 Southern Hemisphere calibration, 0-50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon, 55(4), 1889-1903.
- Automated ice-core layer-counting with strong univariate signals. Climate of the Past, 8(6), 1869-1879.
- Bayesian Glaciological Modelling to quantify uncertainties in ice core chronologies. Quaternary Science Reviews.
- Bayesian Glaciological Modelling to quantify uncertainties in ice core chronologies. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30(21-22), 2961-2975.
- View this article in WRRO A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE ESTIMATION OF RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION CURVES: THE INTCAL09 METHODOLOGY. RADIOCARBON, 51(4), 1151-1164.
- View this article in WRRO INTCAL09 AND MARINE09 RADIOCARBON AGE CALIBRATION CURVES, 0-50,000 YEARS CAL BP. RADIOCARBON, 51(4), 1111-1150.
- Estimating radiocarbon calibration curves. BAYESIAN ANAL, 3(2), 225-248. View this article in WRRO
- Estimating radiocarbon calibration curves Rejoinder. BAYESIAN ANAL, 3(2), 263-268.
- Heterogeneity, patchiness and correlation of resources. ECOL MODEL, 207(2-4), 349-355.
- Trophic cascade facilitates coral recruitment in a marine reserve. P NATL ACAD SCI USA, 104(20), 8362-8367.
- Modeling the beta diversity of coral reefs. ECOLOGY, 87(11), 2871-2881.
- Revisiting the catastrophic die-off of the urchin Diadema antillarum on Caribbean coral reefs: Fresh insights on resilience from a simulation model. ECOL MODEL, 196(1-2), 131-148.
- Comment on "Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0 to 50,000 years BP based on paired Th-230/U-234/U-238 and C-14 dates on pristine corals" by R.G. Fairbanks et al. (Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 1781-1796) and "Extending the radiocarbon calibration beyond 26,000 years before present using fossil corals" by T.-C. Chin et al. (Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 1797-1808). QUATERNARY SCI REV, 25(7-8), 855-862.
- Important features of the new radiocarbon calibration curves. QUATERNARY SCI REV, 25(5-6), 408-413.
- The patterning of hypodontia in a group of young adults in Sheffield, UK.. Arch Oral Biol, 50(2), 287-291.
- Mangroves enhance the biomass of coral reef fish communities in the Caribbean. NATURE, 427(6974), 533-536. View this article in WRRO
- NotCal04 - Comparison/calibration C-14 records 26-50 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1225-1238.
- Formal statistical models for estimating radiocarbon calibration curves. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1093-1102.
- IntCal04 terrestrial radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1029-1058.
- Marine04 marine radiocarbon age calibration, 0-26 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1059-1086.
- SHCal04 Southern Hemisphere calibration, 0-11.0 cal kyr BP. RADIOCARBON, 46(3), 1087-1092.
- Bayesian inference for Markov processes with diffusion and discrete components. BIOMETRIKA, 90(3), 613-627.
- Response to Revilla, and Buckley and Ruxton: the resource dispersion hypothesis. TRENDS ECOL EVOL, 18(8), 381-382.
- The Late Glacial human reoccupation of north-western Europe: new approaches to space-time modelling. ANTIQUITY, 77(296), 232-240.
- Bayesian analysis of deformed tessellation models. Advances in Applied Probability, 35(01), 4-26.
- Bayesian analysis of deformed tessellation models. ADV APPL PROBAB, 35(1), 4-26.
- Does the resource dispersion hypothesis explain group living?. TRENDS ECOL EVOL, 17(12), 563-570.
- Group formation games with reappraisal.. J Theor Biol, 217(2), 149-157.
- Impact of landmark reliability on the planar Procrustes analysis of tooth shape.. Arch Oral Biol, 47(7), 545-554.
- Can landscape-scale characteristics be used to predict plant invasions along rivers?. J BIOGEOGR, 29(4), 535-543.
- Social organization of cooperatively breeding long-tailed tits: kinship and spatial dynamics. J ANIM ECOL, 70(5), 820-830.
- Bayesian inference for a random tessellation process.. Biometrics, 57(2), 502-507.
- Planar Procrustes analysis of tooth shape.. Arch Oral Biol, 46(3), 191-199.
- Shapes and sizes of badger territories. OIKOS, 89(2), 392-398.
- Methods for describing and comparing variations in tooth shape. J DENT RES, 79(5), 1206-1206.
- Conditional simulation for moving average processes, with discrete or continuous values. STAT COMPUT, 8(2), 135-144.
- Random diffusion models for animal movement. ECOL MODEL, 100(1-3), 87-102.
- The n-player war of attrition and territorial groups.. J Theor Biol, 189(2), 175-181.
- Towards stereochemical and conformational assignment in flexible molecules using NOEs and molecular modelling. J CHEM SOC PERK T 2(9), 1811-1818.
- A RESOURCE-DRIVEN STRATEGY CONFLICT IN 2 DIMENSIONS. J THEOR BIOL, 177(1), 17-28.
- The efficient estimation of tail probabilities for extremes of moving average processes using conditional simulation. Statistics and Computing, 4(3), 213-218.
- A critique of the Territory Inheritance Hypothesis. Animal Behaviour, 46(4), 821-823.
- Convex hulls of selected subsets of a Poisson process. Journal of Applied Probability, 29(04), 814-824.
- Convex hulls of selected subsets of a Poisson process. Journal of Applied Probability, 29(4), 814-824.
- A finite form for the wrapped Poisson distribution. Advances in Applied Probability, 24(01), 221-222.
- A finite form for the wrapped Poisson distribution. Advances in Applied Probability, 24(1), 221-222.
- Analysis of a model of group territoriality based on the resource dispersion hypothesis. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 148(4), 433-444.
- A model for territory and group formation in a heterogeneous habitat. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 148(4), 445-468.
- Deterministic and Stochastic Models of Social Behaviour based on the Resource Dispersion Hypothesis. Mathematical Medicine and Biology, 7(4), 261-279.
- A Root Anchorage Model for Shallowly Rooted Sitka spruce. Forestry, 63(1), 73-91.
- An integrated forest process model: its calibration and its predictive performance. Forest Ecology and Management, 25(1), 31-58.
- An integrated forest process model: its calibration and its predictive performance.. Research & Development Paper - UK Forestry Commission, 148.
- Modelling and inference for the movement of interacting animals. Methods in Ecology and Evolution.
- SHCal20 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CALIBRATION, 0–55,000 YEARS CAL BP. Radiocarbon, 1-20.
- THE INTCAL20 APPROACH TO RADIOCARBON CALIBRATION CURVE CONSTRUCTION: A NEW METHODOLOGY USING BAYESIAN SPLINES AND ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES. Radiocarbon, 1-43.
- Response to Bode and colleagues: ‘Resilient reefs may exist, but can larval dispersal models find them?’. PLOS Biology, 16(8), e2007047-e2007047. View this article in WRRO
- Automated ice-core layer-counting with strong univariate signals. Climate of the Past Discussions, 8(4), 2477-2502.
- ChemInform Abstract: Towards Stereochemical and Conformational Assignment in Flexible Molecules Using NOEs and Molecular Modelling.. ChemInform, 28(51), no-no.
- View this article in WRRO The IntCal20 Northern Hemisphere radiocarbon age calibration curve (0-55 kcal BP). Radiocarbon.
- Bayesian Inference on Individual-Based Models by Controlling the Random Inputs, The Contribution of Young Researchers to Bayesian Statistics (pp. 35-39). Springer International Publishing
- Bayesian Layer Counting in Ice-Cores: Reconstructing the Time Scale, The Contribution of Young Researchers to Bayesian Statistics (pp. 121-125). Springer International Publishing
- Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process: Overview John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
- Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Conference proceedings papers
- Bayesian inference for continuous time animal movement based on steps and turns. Bayesian Statistics in Action (pp 223-230) View this article in WRRO
- Bayesian inference on individual-based models by controlling the random inputs. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics, Vol. 63 (pp 35-39)
- Modelling the role played by aided migration in the dispersal of alien plant species. KEY CONCEPTS IN LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY (pp 320-320)
- Stochastic simulation of ants that forage by expectation. FOURTH EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON ARTIFICIAL LIFE (pp 531-538)
- Modelling foraging behaviour of ant colonies.. ADVANCES IN ARTIFICIAL LIFE, Vol. 929 (pp 772-783)
Past grants, as Principal Investigator
Daphne Jackson Fellowship DJ Statistical Support for BAS Palaeoclimate Studies BAS Ice Core Annual Layer Counting BAS
Past grants, as Coinvestigator
Marine Ecosystems Research Programme Wp3 Topic 2 NERC Marine Ecosystems Research Programme NERC National Centre for Statistical Ecology - beyond 2010 EPSRC The future of the past: A robust framework for the upgrade and development of the international radiocarbon calibration/comparison curves (IntCal) NERC Out of Asia / A New Framework for Dating the Spread of Agriculture in Europe NERC A generic model of aquatic remote sensing and the incorporation of ecological scenarios using Bayesian statistics NERC The future of the past: A robust framework for the upgrade and development of the international radiocarbon calibration/comparison curves NERC Inferring long-term community dynamics from spatial patch mosaics NERC Inferring long-term community dynamics from spatial patch mosaics NERC
- Teaching activities
MAS115 Mathematical Investigation Skills