Ben Kearns

BSc (Hons), MSc, PhD

Population Health, School of Medicine and Population Health

Honorary Research Fellow

b.kearns@sheffield.ac.uk

Full contact details

Ben Kearns
Population Health, School of Medicine and Population Health

Profile

I am a Research Fellow in Health Economics and Decision Modelling at the University of Sheffield. My PhD focused on the use of Bayesian dynamic survival models for the analysis and extrapolation of survival data. This included extensions to incorporate external evidence, cure fraction models, and time-varying treatment effects.

I have substantial experience of health technology assessments, and the use of statistical methods to support appraisals. This includes a number of oncology appraisals, and leading projects such as the first UK options-appraisal of screening for ovarian cancer, evaluating pathway (service) re-design options for individuals with diabetes and depression, and providing independent critiques of company submissions to the NICE Technology Appraisal programme. I have worked for a variety of decision-makers and clients including NICE, the Department of Health, NHS Cancer Screening Programmes, and pharmaceutical companies. I have also delivered training to both NICE technical staff and the ABPI, and regularly peer-reviews for the Lancet and NIHR.

I am module lead for HAR6119: Building Cost-effectiveness Models for Health Technology Assessment (online), the deputy lead for HAR6167: Cost-effectiveness Modelling for Health Technology Assessment, and my section lead for the ScHARR Information Governance Committee.

Research interests

The use of statistics in health economics
Extrapolation and time-series analyses
Survival analysis and model uncertainty
Vascular disease, cancer, depression
Chronic diseases, mental ill health, and their interactions
The use of health economics for pathway (service) re-design
Mathematical modelling, including simulation

Current projects

I currently work for EEPRU and the NICE DSU on a variety of projects, including ‘Models for the evaluation and purchase of antimicrobials’. I am also actively engaged with knowledge exchange consultancy. I shall be starting an NIHR DSEA exploring the use of evidence synthesis and machine learning methods to incorporate external evidence when extrapolating baseline hazard functions.

Publications

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Featured publications

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Journal articles

Palmer S, Borget I, Friede T, Husereau D, Karnon J, Kearns B, Medin E, Peterse EFP, Klijn SL, Verburg-Baltussen EJM , Fenwick E et al (2022) A Guide to Selecting Flexible Survival Models to Inform Economic Evaluations of Cancer Immunotherapies. Value in Health.
See-Toh RS-E, Wong XY, Mahboobani KSKH, Soon SS, Kearns B, Cooper K, Ho KW, Kuntjoro I & Ng K (2022) Cost-effectiveness of transcatheter aortic valve implantation in patients with severe symptomatic aortic stenosis of intermediate surgical risk in Singapore. BMC Health Services Research, 22(1). View this article in WRRO
Heathcote L, Candolfi P, Kearns B, Sarmah A, Srivastava T & Sutton A (2022) HTA20 A Systematic Review and Statistical Analysis of Factors Influencing the Cost-Effectiveness of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation (TAVI) for Severe Symptomatic Aortic Stenosis. Value in Health, 25(7), S507-S507.
Kearns B, Stevenson MD, Triantafyllopoulos K & Manca A (2022) Dynamic and flexible survival models for extrapolation of relative survival : a case study and simulation study. Medical Decision Making, 42(7), 945-955. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Cooper K, Orr M, Essat M, Hamilton J & Cantrell A (2022) The incidence and costs of adverse events associated with antidepressants : results from a systematic review, network meta-analysis and multi-country economic model. Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment, 18, 1133-1143. View this article in WRRO
Bullement A & Kearns B (2022) Incorporating external trial data to improve survival extrapolations: a pilot study of the COU-AA-301 trial. Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology. View this article in WRRO
Whyte S, Thomas C, Chilcott J & Kearns B (2022) Optimizing the design of a repeated fecal immunochemical test bowel cancer screening programme with a limited endoscopy capacity from a health economic perspective. Value in Health, 25(6), 954-964. View this article in WRRO
Stephenson J, Smith CM, Kearns B, Haywood A & Bissell P (2021) The association between obesity and quality of life : a retrospective analysis of a large-scale population-based cohort study. BMC Public Health, 21(1). View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Stevenson MD, Triantafyllopoulos K & Manca A (2021) Comparing current and emerging practice models for the extrapolation of survival data : a simulation study and case-study. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 21(1). View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Stevenson M, Triantafyllopoulos K & Manca A (2021) The extrapolation performance of survival models for data with a cure fraction: a simulation study. Value in Health, 24(11), 1634-1642. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Cooper K, Cantrell A & Thomas C (2021) Schizophrenia treatment with second-generation antipsychotics : a multi-country comparison of the costs of cardiovascular and metabolic adverse events and weight gain. Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment, 17, 125-137. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Stevens J, Ren S & Brennan A (2020) How uncertain is the survival extrapolation? A study of the impact of different parametric survival models on extrapolated uncertainty about hazard functions, lifetime mean survival and cost effectiveness. PharmacoEconomics, 38(2), 193-204. View this article in WRRO
Bell Gorrod H, Kearns B, Stevens J, Thokala P, Labeit A, Latimer N, Tyas D & Sowdani A (2019) A review of survival analysis methods used in NICE technology appraisals of cancer treatments: consistency, limitations and areas for improvement. Medical Decision Making, 39(8), 899-909. View this article in WRRO
Thomas C, Whyte S, Kearns B & Chilcott J (2019) External Validation of a Colorectal Cancer Model Against Screening Trial Long-Term Follow-Up Data. Value in Health, 22(10), 1154-1161. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Stevenson M, Triantafyllopoulos K & Manca A (2019) Generalized linear models for flexible parametric modeling of the hazard function. Medical Decision Making, 39(7), 867-878. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Chilcott J, Relton C, Whyte S, Woods HB, Nickerson C & Loban A (2018) The association between long-term conditions and uptake of population-based screening for colorectal cancer: results from two English cohort studies. Cancer Management and Research, 10, 637-645. View this article in WRRO
Atkin W, Brenner A, Martin J, Wooldrage K, Shah U, Lucas F, Greliak P, Pack K, Kralj-Hans I, Thomson A , Perera S et al (2017) The clinical effectiveness of different surveillance strategies to prevent colorectal cancer in people with intermediate-grade colorectal adenomas: a retrospective cohort analysis, and psychological and economic evaluations. Health Technology Assessment, 21(25), 1-536. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Rafia R, Leaviss J, Preston L, Brazier JE, Palmer S & Ara R (2017) The cost-effectiveness of changes to the care pathway used to identify depression and provide treatment amongst people with diabetes in England: a model-based economic evaluation. BMC Health Services Research, 17(1), 78-78. View this article in WRRO
Kearns BC & Thomas SM (2017) Cost-effectiveness of superficial femoral artery endovascular interventions in the UK and Germany: a modelling study. BMJ Open, 7(1). View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Chilcott J, Whyte S, Preston L & Sadler S (2016) Cost-effectiveness of screening for ovarian cancer amongst postmenopausal women: a model-based economic evaluation. BMC Medicine, 14(1), ---. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Pandor A, Stevenson M, Hamilton J, Chambers D, Clowes M, Graham J & Kumar MS (2016) Cabazitaxel for Hormone-Relapsed Metastatic Prostate Cancer Previously Treated With a Docetaxel-Containing Regimen: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 35(4), 415-424. View this article in WRRO
Li J, Green M, Kearns B, Holding E, Smith C, Haywood A, Cooper C, Strong M & Relton C (2016) Patterns of multimorbidity and their association with health outcomes within Yorkshire, England: Baseline results from the Yorkshire Health Study. BMC Public Health, 16(649). View this article in WRRO
Green MA, Li J, Relton C, Strong M, Kearns B, Wu M, Bissell P, Blackburn J, Cooper C, Goyder E , Loban A et al (2016) Cohort Profile: The Yorkshire Health Study.. Int J Epidemiol, 45(3), 707-712. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Whyte S, Seaman HE, Snowball J, Halloran SP, Butler P, Patnick J, Nickerson C & Chilcott J (2016) Factors associated with completion of bowel cancer screening and the potential effects of simplifying the screening test algorithm. British Journal of Cancer, 114(3), 327-333. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B (2015) Improved identification of people at risk of psychosis: is it value for money?. The Lancet Psychiatry, 2(11), 951-952. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B (2015) Improved identification of people at risk of psychosis: Is it value for money?. The Lancet Psychiatry, 2(11), 951-952. View this article in WRRO
Wu M, Brazier JE, Kearns B, Relton C, Smith C & Cooper CL (2015) Examining the impact of 11 long-standing health conditions on health-related quality of life using the EQ-5D in a general population sample. The European Journal of Health Economics, 16(2), 141-151. View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Whyte S, Chilcott J & Patnick J (2014) Guaiac faecal occult blood test performance at initial and repeat screens in the English Bowel Cancer Screening Programme. British Journal of Cancer, 111(9), 1734-1741. View this article in WRRO
Ara R, Kearns B, vanHout BA & Brazier JE (2014) Predicting preference-based utility values using partial proportional odds models. BMC Research Notes, 7(1). View this article in WRRO
Simpson EL, Kearns B, Stevenson MD, Cantrell AJ, Littlewood C & Michaels JA (2014) Enhancements to angioplasty for peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAD): systematic review, cost-effectiveness assessment and expected value of information analysis. Health Technology Assessment, 18(10), 1-252.
Kearns B, Ara R, Young T & Relton C (2013) Association between body mass index and health-related quality of life, and the impact of self-reported long-term conditions – cross-sectional study from the south Yorkshire cohort dataset. BMC Public Health, 13(1). View this article in WRRO
Uttley L, Kearns B, Ren S & Stevenson M (2013) Aripiprazole for the Treatment and Prevention of Acute Manic and Mixed Episodes in Bipolar I Disorder in Children and Adolescents: A NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 31(11), 981-990.
Kearns BC, Michaels JA, Stevenson MD & Thomas SM (2013) Cost-effectiveness analysis of enhancements to angioplasty for infrainguinal arterial disease. British Journal of Surgery, 100(9), 1180-1188.
Kearns B, Ara R, Wailoo A, Manca A, Alava MH, Abrams K & Campbell M (2013) Good Practice Guidelines for the use of Statistical Regression Models in Economic Evaluations. PharmacoEconomics, 31(8), 643-652.
Kearns B, Lloyd Jones M, Stevenson M & Littlewood C (2013) Cabazitaxel for the Second-Line Treatment of Metastatic Hormone-Refractory Prostate Cancer: A NICE Single Technology Appraisal. PharmacoEconomics, 31(6), 479-488.
Kearns B, Gallagher H & de Lusignan S (2013) Predicting the prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the English population: a cross-sectional study. BMC Nephrology, 14(1). View this article in WRRO
Tosh J, Kearns B, Brennan A, Parry G, Ricketts T, Saxon D, Kilgarriff-Foster A, Thake A, Chambers E & Hutten R (2013) Innovation in Health Economic Modelling of Service Improvements for Longer-Term Depression: Demonstration in a Local Health Community. JOURNAL OF MENTAL HEALTH POLICY AND ECONOMICS, 16, S34-S35.
Tosh J, Kearns B, Brennan A, Parry G, Ricketts T, Saxon D, Kilgarriff-Foster A, Thake A, Chambers E & Hutten R (2013) Innovation in health economic modelling of service improvements for longer-term depression: demonstration in a local health community. BMC Health Services Research, 13(1). View this article in WRRO
Hollinshead JFV, Kearns B & Meechan DF (2011) Kidney Disease Profiles. British Journal of Renal Medicine, 16(1 Supplement), 5-5.

Chapters

Kearns B () Hazard Function Modeling (pp. 1-6). Wiley View this article in WRRO

Conference proceedings papers

Kearns BC, Stevenson M, Triantafyllopoulos K & Manca A (2019) PNS327 DO FLEXIBLE SURVIVAL MODELS PROVIDE BETTER EXTRAPOLATIONS THAN STANDARD SURVIVAL MODELS? A SIMULATION STUDY. Value in Health, Vol. 22 (pp S819-S819)
Metry A, Sullivan W, Kearns BC & Bullement A (2019) PDB32 WOULD A COHORT-LEVEL APPROACH TO COST-EFFECTIVENESS MODELLING HAVE LED TO A DIFFERENT DECISION IN AN IMPORTANT NICE APPRAISAL FOR OBESITY PATIENTS?. Value in Health, Vol. 22 (pp S577-S578)
Kearns BC, Stevenson M, Triantafyllopoulos K & Manca A (2019) PCN444 DYNAMIC SURVIVAL MODELS FOR INCORPORATING EXTERNAL EVIDENCE WHEN EXTRAPOLATING OVERALL SURVIVAL: A CASE STUDY.. Value in Health, Vol. 22 (pp S522-S522)
Metry A, Sullivan W, Kearns BC & Bullement A (2019) WOULD A COHORT-LEVEL APPROACH TO COST-EFFECTIVENESS MODELLING HAVE LED TO A DIFFERENT DECISION IN AN IMPORTANT NICE APPRAISAL FOR OBESITY PATIENTS?. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 22 (pp S577-S578) View this article in WRRO
Kearns BC, Stevenson M, Triantafyllopoulos K & Manca A (2019) DYNAMIC SURVIVAL MODELS FOR INCORPORATING EXTERNAL EVIDENCE WHEN EXTRAPOLATING OVERALL SURVIVAL: A CASE STUDY.. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 22 (pp S522-S522)
Kearns BC, Stevenson M, Triantafyllopoulos K & Manca A (2019) DO FLEXIBLE SURVIVAL MODELS PROVIDE BETTER EXTRAPOLATIONS THAN STANDARD SURVIVAL MODELS? A SIMULATION STUDY. VALUE IN HEALTH, Vol. 22 (pp S819-S819)
Kearns B, Chilcott & whyte (2016) Flexible parametric survival models and time-series analysis for extrapolating time-varying treatment effects in health technology assessment. Flexible parametric survival models and time-series analysis for extrapolating time-varying treatment effects in health technology assessment, 5 September 2016 - 8 September 2016.
(2014) 15th Biennial European Meeting of the Society for Medical Decision Making. Medical Decision Making, Vol. 34(7) (pp E1-E63)
Uttley L, Kearns B & Stevenson M (2013) Should There Be an Option to “Unrefer” Nice Single Technology Appraisals: Case Study of Aripiprazole for Bipolar I Disorder in Adolescents. Value in Health, Vol. 16(7) (pp A615-A616)

Reports

Whyte S, Thomas C, Kearns B, Webster M & Chilcott J (2017) Optimising Bowel Cancer Screening Phase 1: Optimising the cost effectiveness of repeated FIT screening and screening strategies combining bowel scope and FIT screening View this article in WRRO
Kearns B, Rafia R, Leaviss J, Preston L, Wong R, Brazier J, Palmer S & Ara R (2014) Whole pathway modelling of depression in patients. (Theme 2: Mental Health). Appendices.
Kearns B, Rafia R, Leaviss J, Preston L, Wong R, Brazier J, Palmer S & Ara R (2014) Whole pathway modelling of depression in patients. (Theme 2: Mental Health). Part 1, Executive summary, introduction, clinical reviews and conceptual modelling.
Kearns B, Rafia R, Leaviss J, Preston L, Wong R, Brazier J, Palmer S & Ara R (2014) Whole pathway modelling of depression in patients. (Theme 2: Mental Health). Part 2. Independent economic evaluation: methods and results, discussion and conclusion
Ara R, Kearns B, Mukuria C, van Hout B & Brazier JE (2013) Examining productivity losses associated with health related quality of life using patient and general population data. View this article in WRRO
ara R, van hout B, Kearns B & Brazier JE (2013) Case-mix methodology for the NHS outcomes framework GP Patient Survey Questionnaire Data View this article in WRRO

Software / Code

Kearns B Analysis.R for How uncertain is the survival extrapolation? A study of the impact of different parametric survival models on extrapolated uncertainty about hazard functions, lifetime mean survival and cost-effectiveness.

Posters

Kearns B, Cooper K, Orr M, Essat M, Hamilton J & Cantrell A (2022) POSB7 Adverse Events Associated with Antidepressants: A Systematic Literature Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

Teaching interests

I teach (or have taught) students on the following courses:

HAR6119: Building Cost-effectiveness Models for Health Technology Assessment (Module leader)
HAR6167: Cost-effectiveness Modelling for Health Technology Assessment (Deputy module leader)
HAR6172: Advanced Simulation Methods
HAR6240: Health Service Research Methods
HAR6059: Informatics for Public Health
HAR669: Health Research Methods

I have also supervised masters dissertations for the MSc Health Economics and Decision Modelling, the Master of Public Health (Management and Leadership), and the MSc Statistics with Medical Applications.” Should be amended with an extra sentence at the end “I have also supervised a PhD short project.

My teaching interests include:

The use of decision-analytical models (Decision Trees and Markov Models) in technology assessment.
Incorporating and evaluating uncertainty within decision-analytical models.
Uses of observational data and alternatives to randomised controlled trials.

Professional activities and memberships

Within ScHARR, I am a member of the Modellers Academic Group, Statistical Academic Group, the Public Involvement Group, and the Big Data Group.
I am a member of, and the public involvement lead for, the CLAHRC Yorkshire and Humber Health Economics and Outcome Measurement Theme.
I am a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society.
I am an invited expert for the NICE Scientific Advice programme.
I regularly peer-review journal articles (inc. The Lancet and BMJ), funding submissions (NIHR and MRC) and conference abstracts (SMDM). I have also been a Guest Academic Editor for PLOS One.
I have undertaken privately commissioned work for industrial companies and a University and have been invited to deliver talks at a number of international conferences.

School of Medicine and Population Health